"In a recession, the consumer is generally the last one to leave the economy and the first one back," said Marshall Cohen, chief retail analyst with research firm NPD Group.
From CNNMoney.com: Back-to-school: Test of economy's strength
While some kids are still counting the days until the end of this school year, retail experts are looking ahead to the back-to-school shopping ritual as the first real test of whether the economy is recovering.
"Consumers didn't really start to pull back until last October," Cohen said. "Now they've gone through month's of frugality and there's so much pent up demand out there."
If back-to-school sales are a disaster, then Cohen warns that the economy is headed for a "long period of continued challenge."
But if he's guessed correctly, and this tidal wave of pent-up demand hits retail stores from mid-summer through September, "it could be the first credible sign that consumers are felling a little bit OK about spending again," he said.
I remember hating the end of summer. As it meant the beginning of school. Although the best part of school starting was getting new clothes and my new Trapper Keeper (Pee-Chee folders when I was older). I am anxious to see the school shopping season start as it should be meaning the end of the recession.
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