As you should all know "This has all happened before and it will happen again" in regards to the economy. Things undoubtedly are going to get better. They always do.
CNN Money reported that a survey of leading economists finds them now forecasting a far deeper and more painful recession ahead in the first half of the year, but a modest pickup in the second half of 2009, followed by a solid recovery in 2010.
The forecasts holds little good news for the first half of this year. The economy is expected to decline at a 5% rate in the first quarter, even sharper than the 3.8% drop recorded in the fourth quarter of last year. And the group is forecasting another 1.7% drop in economic activity in the second quarter.
While the economists surveyed are forecasting a 1.6% gain in economic activity the second half of this year, that won't be enough to overcome the first half weakness, which should result in a 0.9% full-year drop in U.S. economic activity when comparing the fourth quarter of this year to a year earlier. That would be the biggest drop on that basis since 1982, and far worse than the year-over-year decline of 0.2% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2008.
The United States is seen as the most likely major economy to emerge from the global recession first, according to the survey. The survey found 34% expect the U.S. back on its feet first, followed by 28% who believe China would be first to recover and 13% who picked Canada. Less than 4% picked European economies as the most likely to lead the recovery.
Economists are very optimistic that this will start turning around by the end of the year and so should you. Who else out there is feeling optimistic? I am.
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